Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured a decisive victory in the country’s general election, with his ruling Prosperity Party winning 438 of the 501 contested parliamentary seats. The result ensures Abiy will remain in power for another term when the new government is sworn in at the beginning of October.

While supporters view the election outcome as a mandate for continued economic reforms and development, critics warn that Ethiopia’s deepening political divisions and security challenges could worsen under Abiy’s leadership.

The election was overshadowed by ongoing conflicts, allegations of political repression, and limited participation from opposition parties. Voting was disrupted in several areas, with 143 polling stations failing to open in the country’s two most populous regions due to security concerns linked to armed groups.

The Fano militia in the Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia rejected both the election and its results, demanding greater regional autonomy. Violence and insurgency continue to affect both regions, raising concerns about long-term stability.

Tensions are also escalating in the northern region of Tigray, which was entirely excluded from the election. The region is still recovering from a devastating two-year civil war that ended in 2022 and claimed an estimated 600,000 lives. Analysts fear that unresolved disputes between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) could trigger another round of fighting.

Relations between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea have also deteriorated sharply since the end of the Tigray conflict. Eritrea has accused landlocked Ethiopia of pursuing ambitions to gain access to a Red Sea port, while reports suggest Eritrea has strengthened ties with Tigrayan leaders. Security experts warn that any renewed conflict in Tigray could draw Eritrea back into the crisis, potentially destabilizing the wider Horn of Africa region.

International concern is growing. The European Union has called for immediate de-escalation in northern Ethiopia, while the United States recently imposed targeted visa restrictions on individuals accused of undermining peace efforts in Tigray.

Although some analysts do not expect an immediate return to full-scale war, they caution that rising tensions and mutual distrust between Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders create a dangerous environment that could quickly escalate.

Political observers say the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Abiy Ahmed uses his strengthened political position to pursue reconciliation and stability—or whether Ethiopia risks sliding back into conflict.