Wheat production in Argentina is under pressure after a sharp rise in global urea fertilizer prices, driven by disruptions linked to the war involving Iran, threatening farmers’ planting decisions ahead of the upcoming season.
Urea, a key nitrogen-based fertilizer essential for crop yields, has nearly doubled in price in recent weeks, forcing farmers to reconsider whether to reduce application levels or shift away from wheat cultivation altogether.
“We did the math the other day and our idea boils down to two options: either we don’t grow wheat and plant something useful for livestock like barley or oats, or we do it but with very little fertilizer, not thinking about high yields,” said Roman Gutierrez from Pergamino in Buenos Aires province.
Market analyst Gustavo Churín said urea prices have surged to around $1,000 per ton, up from roughly $500 a month ago, driven by reduced supply from Persian Gulf exporters amid conflict-related disruptions and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz.
Argentina, one of the world’s major wheat exporters, harvested a record 29.5 million tons of wheat in its last season, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange. However, no official forecast has yet been released for the upcoming crop.
Experts say urea plays a critical role not only in wheat production but also in corn and other major crops. The country consumes about 2.5 million tons annually.
“Urea is the master key that allows you to aspire to higher yield levels,” said Cristian Russo.
In farming regions such as Venado Tuerto in Santa Fe province, producers report declining fertilizer purchases and shifting planting intentions.
“There aren’t that many inquiries about fertilizers. The profit margin is very limited,” said Noelia Castagnani, noting that some growers may switch from wheat to soybeans or corn later in the year.
Analysts warn that while a potential ceasefire in the Middle East could ease market pressure, fertilizer prices are unlikely to return quickly to pre-conflict levels, leaving global agricultural markets vulnerable to continued volatility.