Despite a downturn in global commodity prices, the cost of many essential goods in Bangladesh has risen ahead of Ramadan, according to a review report prepared by the Ministry of Commerce. The report notes that only a few items—such as chickpeas and dates—have seen price declines in the domestic market.
The review compared month-on-month and year-on-year price trends for key commodities—rice, flour, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas and dates—in both domestic and international markets. Demand for these items typically increases in Bangladesh during Ramadan.
The findings were presented yesterday at a meeting of the Task Force Committee on commodity prices and market conditions at the commerce ministry.
According to the report, prices of coarse rice varieties such as Swarna and China have remained stable over the past month in the local market. However, year-on-year prices have increased by 8.57%, with rice currently selling at Tk54–Tk60 per kilogram. In contrast, international prices for the same rice have fallen by 18.65% over the year to $423 per tonne, although they rose by 4.19% over the past month.
Bottled soybean oil prices in Bangladesh increased by 1.57% over the past month and by 12.83% year-on-year. Meanwhile, crude soybean oil prices in the global market fell by 3.03% month-on-month but rose by 9.27% over the year. Over the same annual period, palm oil prices edged up slightly in Bangladesh while declining by 11.82% internationally.
Prices of medium- and small-grain lentils have increased in Bangladesh over the past year, while coarse lentil prices have fallen. In the international market, lentil prices dropped sharply—by 30.92% in Australia and 9.09% in India—two of Bangladesh’s main import sources.
Refined sugar prices rose by 5% in the international market over the past month and by 1.20% domestically. On a yearly basis, sugar prices declined by around 15% in both local and global markets.
Onions offered some relief, with domestic prices falling by 18.18% over the past month due to the start of the new harvest season. However, onion prices remain 24.14% higher than a year ago.
The report also found that prices of ginger, garlic and chickpeas have declined more sharply in Bangladesh than in international markets, even as demand for these items rises during Ramadan.
Demand for dates—an import-dependent item—surges during Ramadan. Over the past month, domestic prices fell by 2.67%, with dates selling at Tk180–Tk550 per kilogram depending on quality. The report did not provide international price data for dates.
Market analysts attributed the weak transmission of lower global prices to inadequate market monitoring, trader syndicates and the depreciation of the taka.
Consumer Association of Bangladesh (CAB) President AHM Safiquzzaman said consumers are failing to benefit from falling global prices due to market manipulation. “Government monitoring is weak, and even where oversight exists, enforcement is often lacking. Traders cite dollar volatility, but the exchange rate has remained relatively stable for some time,” he told TBS.
Following the task force meeting, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashiruddin said prices of some essentials are expected to decline during Ramadan. He noted that imports of essential commodities are 40% higher than last year, which should make this year’s Ramadan more comfortable for consumers.
He said analysis of supply, import and production data suggests market conditions will improve compared to last year, adding that traders have assured the government of adequate supplies and price stability during Ramadan.
Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman and heads of various commerce ministry agencies were present at the meeting.
Despite the optimism, the report warned of a potential shortfall in edible oil supplies during Ramadan compared to last year. Demand during Ramadan is estimated at around 300,000 tonnes.
In November and December, total edible oil imports stood at 366,000 tonnes—comprising 108,000 tonnes of soybean oil and 258,000 tonnes of palm oil—slightly lower than the 372,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
Additionally, letters of credit were opened for importing 392,000 tonnes of soybean and palm oil in November and December, down from 451,000 tonnes in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
As Ramadan is set to begin in mid-February, and imports under these LCs typically arrive in February, the lower volume of opened LCs has raised concerns that market supply of edible oil could be tighter than last year.