British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a crucial political test on Thursday as voters in Gorton and Denton, Greater Manchester, head to the polls in a closely contested by-election that surveys suggest is too close to call.
The contest pits Starmer’s governing Labour Party against the populist Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, and the left-leaning Green Party of England and Wales.
The by-election in northwestern England is seen as the latest challenge for Starmer, whose leadership has come under scrutiny following a series of policy U-turns and the controversial appointment of veteran Labour figure Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.
Making a surprise visit to the constituency earlier this week, Starmer sought to frame the race as a straight choice between Labour and Reform UK. Labour officials have argued that a vote for the Greens could split the progressive vote and benefit Reform.
“The choice could not be more stark,” Starmer said ahead of the vote. “Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.”
Labour won the seat comfortably during its landslide general election victory in 2024. However, the sitting lawmaker stepped down last month, triggering the by-election.
The vote marks Starmer’s first electoral test since facing criticism over Mandelson’s appointment. Mandelson has denied wrongdoing amid renewed attention on his past connections to the late U.S. financier Jeffrey Epstein.
The controversy, combined with several policy reversals, has fueled criticism within Labour ranks, with some party members questioning Starmer’s judgment and leadership. The 63-year-old prime minister has vowed to continue in office despite the pressure.
Adding to tensions in Manchester, Starmer was blamed by some local figures for blocking popular Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as Labour’s candidate in the constituency.
Instead, Labour selected local councillor Angeliki Stogia to contest the seat against Reform’s Matt Goodwin, an academic and author, and Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer, also a local councillor. The campaign has been marked by sharp exchanges and accusations among the parties.
With polls suggesting the three main contenders are running neck-and-neck, the result could carry symbolic weight. A loss in a traditional Labour stronghold would be a setback for Starmer — particularly if the Greens were to capture the seat.
However, many Labour lawmakers argue that the more significant political test will come in May, when local elections across several English councils, as well as votes for the Welsh and Scottish assemblies, are set to take place.
For now, all eyes are on Greater Manchester, where a single constituency could deliver an outsized message about the direction of British politics under Starmer’s leadership.