Japan could face a potential electricity supply crunch this summer if ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, an energy expert warned on Monday.
Takafumi Yanagisawa, executive analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), said prolonged conflict in the region could strain Japan’s power system just as electricity demand rises due to increased air-conditioning use during the summer months.
He noted that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—where tensions linked to the Iran conflict have effectively restricted LNG flows—pose a significant risk to Japan’s energy security. Around 4 million metric tons of LNG annually, or roughly 6% of Japan’s total imports, pass through the route.
Yanagisawa added that Qatar and the United Arab Emirates together account for a meaningful share of Japan’s LNG imports, and that supplies from these countries contribute about 3.5% of Japan’s electricity generation.
“As this affects what is known as the power reserve margin, a 3.5% drop is by no means small as we head into summer months,” he said.
Japan remains heavily dependent on LNG for power generation, with nearly 60% of imports used for electricity production, while the remainder is used for city gas and other needs. Its largest supplier is Australia, followed by Malaysia, the United States, Russia, and others.
To manage the shortfall risk, utilities are reportedly increasing spot market purchases and maximizing flexibility under existing contracts with suppliers such as Australia and the United States, allowing for additional volumes under agreed terms.
Yanagisawa also warned that damage to LNG infrastructure in Qatar, reportedly affected by Iranian attacks, could take years to repair. Even if shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz reopen, reduced exports and delays in planned capacity expansion may persist.
He further noted that expectations of a global LNG supply surplus by 2030—widely held before the Middle East crisis—are now increasingly uncertain due to rising geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.