Growing uncertainty over U.S. security commitments under Donald Trump is prompting American allies to look toward Japan, as Tokyo prepares its most significant expansion of arms exports since World War II.
Japan’s ruling party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, has approved plans to ease long-standing restrictions on weapons exports. The new rules are expected to be formally adopted as early as this month, according to government officials.
The move marks a major shift for Japan, which has largely stayed out of global arms markets for decades under its pacifist post-war constitution. However, with an annual defense budget of around $60 billion, the country maintains a strong industrial base capable of producing advanced systems such as submarines and fighter jets.
Interest in Japanese defense equipment is growing rapidly, with countries like Poland and the Philippines emerging as potential buyers amid rising regional security concerns. Japan is reportedly considering exporting used naval frigates to the Philippines, which remains locked in maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea.
Japanese defense firms, including Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric, are expanding hiring and production capacity to meet expected demand. Companies are also increasingly willing to enter overseas defense markets, as concerns about reputational risks decline.
European allies are also exploring deeper cooperation with Japan to reduce reliance on U.S. weapons supplies, which have been strained by ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine War. Diplomats say Washington’s unpredictability and pressure on alliances have accelerated efforts to diversify defense partnerships.
China has expressed concern over Japan’s policy shift, urging Tokyo to act cautiously in military and security matters. Meanwhile, countries like Ukraine are seeking to collaborate with Japanese firms, particularly in areas such as drone technology.
Japan’s gradual move toward arms exports began under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but recent changes signal a more decisive push to strengthen domestic defense production and support allies.
Analysts say Japan’s entry into the global arms market could reshape defense supply chains, particularly in Asia, offering countries an alternative to U.S. dominance while boosting Tokyo’s geopolitical influence.