Britain will have adequate gas and electricity supplies this summer despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the country’s energy network operators said on Tuesday. The reassurance comes amid declining domestic gas production and concerns over disruptions to global energy flows.
The conflict in the region has affected shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Qatar, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. Despite these challenges, National Gas said the market remains capable of meeting demand.
“While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised concerns about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate sufficient capacity to meet demand this summer,” said Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, Director of Energy Systems and Resilience at National Gas, in its 2026 Gas Summer Outlook.
Domestic gas production from the UK Continental Shelf is expected to fall by 6% year-on-year to 13.1 billion cubic metres, continuing a long-term decline in North Sea output. However, increased imports are set to compensate for the shortfall.
Gas imports from Norway are projected to rise by 24% to 12.2 bcm, while LNG imports from other countries are expected to surge by 65% to 2.7 bcm.
Wholesale gas prices have climbed by around 50% since the onset of the conflict, as Britain competes for LNG cargoes from alternative sources. According to the outlook, the duration of elevated prices will depend on how quickly Qatari production resumes and shipping stabilizes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Consumers, however, will be shielded from price spikes by the regulator Ofgem, whose price cap is currently set through the end of July.
Total gas demand is expected to remain stable at around 29.8 bcm, similar to last summer. Gas-fired power plants typically generate about 30% of the country’s electricity, though demand fluctuates depending on renewable energy availability.
Meanwhile, National Energy System Operator (NESO) forecasts a surplus of electricity supply over the summer months. Strong wind and solar generation, combined with lower seasonal demand, are expected to ease pressure on the grid.
NESO also highlighted increased system flexibility, including initiatives encouraging consumers to shift electricity usage to periods of high supply. Some energy providers are offering financial incentives, such as bill discounts, to promote this behavior.
Peak electricity demand this summer is projected at 29.7 gigawatts, unchanged from 2025 levels.
The outlook covers the period from April through September, when energy demand is typically lower. However, officials cautioned that winter forecasts—expected later this year—could reflect a greater impact from Middle East tensions if disruptions persist.