Three months before the devastating avalanches and landslides along the Nepal-Tibet border, experts and officials from China and Nepal met in Kathmandu to discuss the potential risks of such natural disasters and what kind of preparations could be made to deal with them.
The meeting, held in the Nepalese capital on May 27, was attended by 10 Nepalese officials and about a dozen Chinese officials. The Chinese officials also included officials from the disaster-hit Tibetan region. The agenda for the meeting, prepared by Nepal, was seen by Reuters.
The meeting discussed monitoring flood, weather, and glacier-related risks and strengthening mutual cooperation to address them.
Participants called for joint actions to reduce risk, including creating a list of glacial lakes and mapping vulnerable areas.
The meeting participants called for joint measures to reduce risks, including creating a list of glacial lakes and mapping vulnerable areas.
But after that meeting, Nepal did not receive as much information from China about glacier risks and water levels as it had hoped, two Nepali officials told Reuters.
These officials fear that without adequate information sharing, Nepal’s ability to predict and prepare for major disasters could be hampered.
“What we really wanted from them and what we still want from them is that if there is any change in the glacier or any change in that area, we should know about it in advance,” said Souhardya Joshi, an expert from Nepal’s flood forecasting department. He told Reuters.
What we actually wanted from them, and what we still want, is that if there is any change in the glacier or any change in that area, we should be able to know it a little earlier.Sauhardya Joshi, expert at Nepal’s flood forecasting department
According to the latest figures, 903 people have been killed in the two countries in the devastating landslides and mudslides caused by a glacier avalanche last Wednesday. More than 4,200 people are still missing, the BBC reported.
China says it provided information ‘in a timely manner’
No official or expert has blamed any party for the natural disaster. The cost of dealing with the damage could be estimated at one-tenth of Nepal’s annual income. Nepalese officials say deepening cooperation with China is now a priority.
Nepal had expressed concern at the meeting about flooding in the same area where the landslide occurred on Wednesday, which was caused by the sudden release of water from a glacial lake in Tibet. The flooding killed at least nine people in Nepal and left more than a dozen missing.
Reuters sought comment from China on the May meeting and Nepal’s request for additional information, but the country’s foreign ministry did not respond.
Vinod Parajuli, another water expert for the Nepalese government, said that Chinese officials at the meeting said they did not have the authority to sign any agreement to meet Nepal’s request. Further discussions are needed on the issue.
However, details of the meeting or Nepal’s request for broader cooperation from China in monitoring the glaciers that threaten communities on both sides of the border have not been made public.
Rejecting criticism from social media users, the Chinese embassy said Chinese and international experts face major challenges in monitoring risks in the remote Himalayan region.
A statement on social media from the Chinese embassy in Nepal on Saturday said Beijing and Kathmandu maintain close communication on the issue. Significant progress was made in the May meeting on enhancing cross-border disaster information sharing.
Nepalese officials claim that Nepal had raised similar concerns last year.
Experts and officials have warned that slow cooperation or progress should not be seen as a significant cause of recent disasters.
Rejecting criticism from social media users, the Chinese embassy said Chinese and international experts face major challenges in monitoring risks in the remote Himalayan region.
The Chinese embassy also said that the Chinese teams had exchanged important information with Nepal in a “timely” manner.
Nepal had expressed concern at the meeting about floods in the same area where Wednesday’s landslide occurred last year, caused by the sudden release of water from a glacial lake in Tibet, which left at least nine people dead and more than a dozen missing in Nepal.
Vinod Parajuli said, “When heavy rains are forecast in the Tibetan region, the Chinese side provides us with information on the forecast and observations. However, they do not provide information on avalanches, rising water levels, landslides or extreme weather events.”
The expert also said that China started sending forecasts of heavy rain in Tibet through its WeChat messaging app and e-mail about a month ago.
The sequence of events preceding the disaster
Twelve days before the disaster, China’s World Meteorological Center told Nepalese officials in an email that a seasonal depression was forecast to form in the area from August 14 to 19. Reuters has seen the email.
China warned, “There is a possibility of more than normal rainfall in large areas of Nepal. We would also like to draw your attention to the possibility of various types of small and continuous disasters, including landslides, flash floods, etc.”
The Chinese embassy said China is regularly sharing information with Nepal, including observations of a lake formed by debris from last week’s disaster.
The remote mountainous regions where the information sharing is being discussed are controlled by regional geopolitical rivals such as China and India. As a result, monitoring, forecasting and delivering early warnings in these regions is extremely complex. These areas have huge amounts of ice and snow, and there are densely populated plains below.
Wednesday’s disaster was triggered by a glacier collapse in a relatively under-monitored area, according to Austin Lord, a senior fellow and environmental anthropologist at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. Nepal’s lack of bilateral cooperation in disaster response played no significant role.
However, Austin Lord also said, “This does not mean that the lack of a clear and effective mechanism can be ignored. Information exchange between Nepal and China is very limited.”
Parajuli also believes that the time it took for the landslide to reach Nepal clearly demonstrates the importance of early warning systems.
As a huge torrent of mud rushed through a Tibetan border post at 8:32 a.m. local time on Wednesday, Nepalese time, people were caught on video surveillance trying to escape. The video footage has become one of the most iconic images of the disaster.
Twenty-six minutes later, the head of Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority called to alert Parajuli about flooding in the Trishuli River. Parajuli’s team learned that a monitoring station on the border had not sent any information since 8:40 a.m.
“Then we tried to contact the observation stations downstream. But no information was available from those stations either,” Parjuli said. His team believes the equipment may have been washed away by the current.
After confirming the flooding by contacting Nepali authorities, Parjuli’s team sent a warning message to the general public via mobile phone at 9:13 am.
At least four observation posts were destroyed by a landslide 168 kilometers (62 miles) downstream from the Nepal-China border, according to a Nepalese government assessment. The flood caused about 57.4 million cubic meters (2 billion cubic feet) of water to flow, one and a half times more than normal.
According to the Stimson Center, Wednesday’s landslide damaged 19 bridges and about 40 kilometers of highways in Nepal. In addition, more than 10 percent of the country’s power generation capacity was disrupted.
Several important river systems in Nepal originate in Tibet and then flow through one of the world’s most earthquake-prone and flood-prone regions.
Parajuli said Nepalese authorities will work with China to develop research and monitoring systems to monitor avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods, which pose a major risk to mountain villages.
Parajuli said his department would propose an information-sharing agreement with China, similar to Nepal’s existing system with neighboring India, to provide not only heavy rain forecasts but also more frequent information on rainfall and river water levels.
“Nepal will try to get information every 10 minutes so that we can warn our people and save their lives. Our main goal is that no disaster escapes our attention in the future,” the official said.